Statistics, Data Analysis and Probability K12Christmas is getting near, and a four person company wants to run a Secret Santa scheme. The idea is that all four names are put into a hat and drawn at random. You buy a present for the person whose name you pick. Sadly, for the last three years in a row, at least one person has picked themselves, ruining the draw.

Estimate the probability that the draw will fail this year because somebody picks themselves.

Author: Leslie Green